2009 semifinals, Season 8, Season 8 Shows

Idol semifinals week 3: The predictions

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Ready for Ladies’ Night on Idol?

That’s my prediction for Tuesday — that we’ll have the first semifinal round in which the gals outperform the guys.

In one corner, we have four females who have already made independent CDs in one form or another. And that group doesn’t even include Lil Rounds, the most highly touted singer of the bunch.

In the other corner we have four unknowns and two guys who have gotten their fair share of Idol attention — Scott MacIntyre for his talent; Nathaniel Marshall for his drama.

In one corner, we have six females who have to be feeling pretty good about their chances of making the finals. Only two gals have advanced so far; at least three more are likely to be selected, either by voters or during the wild card round. Sing one song really well Tuesday night, and a spot in the final 12 likely awaits.

In the other corner, we have six guys who have to sense that their chances of advancing are diminishing. Males already occupy four spots in the finals. And well-publicized semifinalists like Anoop Desai, Kai Kalama and Matt Giraud will likely be back on the wild card show.

For the six gals, it might pay to be last.

For the six guys, the pressure is mounting.

Coming Tuesday: Live blogging during the show, followed by a recap.

Meanwhile, here are the predictions for round three.

The Guys

Scott MacIntyreJu'Not Joyner1. Scott MacIntyre: A judges’ favorite. A sentimental favorite. And this 23-year-old from Scottsdale, Ariz., has the musical resume to back it up. He has independently produced six full-length CDs, according to his Web site. He should sail into the finals since the Round Three lineup of guys seems like the weakest yet.

2. Ju’Not Joyner: First bit of business is the first name. It’s pronounced “you know,” Ju’Not told The Baltimore Sun, which ran a profile on him Sunday. We heard Ju’Not sing a snippet of “Hey There, Delilah” in Hollywood, and he sounded great. But that’s about all we’ve seen of this 26-year-old from Bowie, Md. He’s my pick for this week’s contestant most likely to come from nowhere to make the finals.

Nathaniel MarshallVon Smith3. Von Smith: Rosie O’Donnell introduced Von to the world back in February 2007 after he posted videos of himself singing on YouTube. Then he sang a very overblown version of “And I am Telling You” from “Dreamgirls” on The View. He’s been trying to jump-start a big-time career in music ever since. Sorry, Rosie, I don’t think Von’s better than that year’s crop of Idol contestants.

4. Nathaniel Marshall: My advice for Nathaniel: Watch the tape of Tatiana’s semifinal performance. Watch how she controlled the histrionics. Do the same, and I think you’ll surprise people with your voice. Let the histrionics run wild, and no one will notice the voice.

Alex Wagner-TrugmanJorge Nunez5. Alexander Wagner-Trugman: He entered the competition on a lark. Somehow wound up in Hollywood. Somehow wound up in the final 36. I’m not sure how. But I’m pretty sure he won’t get a chance to fulfill his ambition of juggling fire on stage in the finals, because I don’t think he’ll make it that far.

6. Jorge Nunez-Mendez: The male equivalent of Jeanine Vailes, meaning Jorge’s a contestant we’ve barely seen since his audition. Can he duplicate Kris Allen’s feat and overcome the pre-semifinal obscurity? In Jorge’s case, I doubt it. And pulling a Jeanine and wearing shorts probably won’t help him.

The Gals

Kristen McNamaraLil Rounds1. Kristen McNamara: Her judgment in picking group performance partners is suspect. She got cussed out by one, made another cry and nearly embraced Tatiana. But she’s a veteran of Star Search and Nashville Star. She can sing pop and country, both pretty darn well. And Idol needs someone with her personality to enliven the finals.

2. Lil Rounds: If there’s one female singer Idol has put in the spotlight for her voice rather than her antics, it’s Lil. And she has an interesting backstory — chased from her home with her three kids by a tornado. I’m not sure she fits the Idol mold, which spelled the downfall of Melinda Doolittle a couple of years back. But the voice alone should get her into the finals, and might take her much further if she’s got a personality to match.

Kendall BeardFelicia Barton3. Kendall Beard: Ann Marie Boskovich fizzled in round one, so Kendall’s the best shot we have at a female country singer in the top 12. Musical variety made season seven special, so I’ll be rooting for Kendall to fill the Kristy Lee Cook, Kellie Pickler, Carrie Underwood void this year. Like Michael Sarver, who is already finals bound, Kendall hails from east Texas.

4. Felicia Barton: The 26-year-old from Virginia Beach steps into the spotlight for the first time since replacing Joanna Pacitti. I’m still wondering why she got the spot over the likes of Frankie Jordan and Jenn Korbee, who just missed the final 36 after sing-offs at the mansion. But she has a church ministry singing background, and that seems to be the secret for earning a spot in the semifinals this year.

Arianna AfsarTaylor Vaifanua5. Taylor Vaifanua: Taylor’s the 5-foot-11 forward for the Hurricane High School girls’ basketball team, the gal whose family moved from Samoa to Hurricane, Utah, so she could be discovered. Tuesday night, she gets her chance — a high school junior, asked to sing one song that could make or break her musical career. Talk about pressure for a 17-year-old. So far, four other teens have been faced with the same situation; only Allison Iraheta is finals bound. And Taylor winds up performing with what looks like the best group of gals.

6. Arianna Afsar: And Joanna might be gone, but we still have one former “Annie” in tonight’s show. That was Arianna’s first lead role back in 2002, the founding artistic director of J*Company’s Youth Theatre told the San Diegio Union-Tribune. She’s been involved in theater ever since and finished second in the Miss America’s Outstanding Teen pageant in 2005. We’ve seen very little of Arianna since her Idol audition.

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