American Idol

A look at who’s most likely to advance on American Idol

Arthur Gunn performs during the Top 20 show on American Idol Season 18. (ABC Photo)

Arthur Gunn performs during the Top 20 show on American Idol Season 18. (ABC Photo)


Who’s likely to advance from the semifinals on American Idol Sunday night?

Who’s likely to head home at the start of the episode?

Well, it isn’t as though we don’t have any indication of which singers are most popular.

In fact, we have a week’s worth of viewing habits for those Top 20 performances, which aired last Sunday.

And it appears a pretty sure bet that Arthur Gunn and Just Sam — two singers who I thought flopped in their first at-home performances — will advance.

On YouTube, they are two of just five singers who have more than 200,000 views on their Top 20 performances. The others: Jonny West and Kimmy Gabriela, who I thought excelled last week, and Francisco Martin, who delivered a middling performance.

On Facebook, Arthur, Just Sam, Jonny and Francisco are four of five artists with more than 400,000 views of their Top 20 performances. They’re joined by Lauren Spencer-Smith, who delivered one of last week’s best vocals.

In fact, if you rank the contestants by Top 20 performance video views, eight singers land in the bottom 10 on both YouTube and Facebook — DeWayne Crocker Jr., Faith Becnel, Cyniah Elise, Nick Merico, Grace Leer, Franklin Boone, Sophia James and Olivia Ximines.

Here are the rankings as of Friday afternoon, along with the grades I provided each singer for their Top 20 performance. Check back Sunday night. I’ll be providing live song-by-song grades again during the Top 10 show.


1. Arthur Gunn: 674,756 (D+)
2. Francisco Martin: 341,747 (C+)
3. Jonny West: 265,047 (A-)
4. Just Sam: 260,580 (C-)
5. Kimmy Gabriela: 231,067 (A-)

6. Louis Knight: 183,185 (B)
7. Julia Gargano: 180,705 (B)
8. Makayla Phillips: 173,562 (A-)
9. Lauren Spencer-Smith: 168,997 (B+)
10. Aliana Jeser: 164,000 (C)

11. Franklin Boone: 150,671 (C)
12. Dillon James: 148,719 (B-)
13. Cyniah Elise: 141,650 (B-)
14. Sophia James: 136,491 (A)
15. Olivia Ximines: 122,894 (B-)

16. Grace Leer: 113, 196 (B)
17. Jovin Webb: 111,137 (A)
18. Nick Merico: 109,447 (B)
19. Faith Becnel: 89,000 (B-)
20. DeWayne Crocker Jr.: 84,669 (C)

See also …
Song by song grades for the American Idol Top 20 (with videos)Song by song grades for the American Idol Top 20 (with videos)

Francisco Martin performs during the Top 20 show on American Idol Season 18. (ABC Photo)

Francisco Martin performs during the Top 20 show on American Idol Season 18. (ABC Photo)


1. Arthur Gunn: 1,600,000 (D+)
2. Just Sam: 974,500 (C-)
3. Lauren Spencer-Smith: 752,800 (B+)
4. Francisco Martin: 514,400 (C+)
5. Jonny West: 450,100 (A-)

6. Dillon James: 369,700 (B-)
7. Jovin Webb: 291,6000 (A)
8. Kimmy Gabriela: 287,500 (A-)
9. Aliana Jester: 263,600 (C)
10. Louis Knight: 263,500 (B)

11. Olivia Ximines: 251,100 (B-)
12. Sophia James: 235,400 (A)
13. Makayla Phillips: 233,400 (A-)
14. DeWayne Crocker: 204,300 (C)
15. Julia Gargano: 201,100 (B)

16. Franklin Boone: 188,000 (C)
17. Grace Leer: 186,400 (B)
18. Cyniah Elise: 176,900 (B-)
19. Faith Becnel: 169,700 (B-)
20. Nick Merico: 163,100 (B)

Producers, coaches, judges and hosts on American Idol and The Voice will pretend they are hosting a legitimate singing competition over the next few weeks. Having blogged about singing shows for more than a decade, I can assure you they are not.

You cannot go from a Top 20 to a winner in four weeks (American Idol) or a Top 17 to a winner in three weeks (The Voice) and call it a fair and legitimate singing competition.

So have fun watching. Vote if you want. Put very little stock in the results because they will mean virtually nothing.

Most of all, support the singers when their time on the show ends. They deserved a better showcase for their talent.

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1 Comment

  1. TiredofTripe May 2, 2020 at 6:08 pm -  Reply

    Your methodology is wrong and wrong.

    Unless you don’t believe it comes down to who the producers want.

    By the way, someone recently posted on Lisa Leuschner’s Instagram that he/she was going to try to vote for her again this season.

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